Moreover, San Diego should have an ideal matchup in Game 2, with Blake Snell facing a Mets offense that ranks as the No. While the Padres’ series price is bettable before Game 1, at +131 or better than my number, FanGraphs has a less optimistic outlook on their chances. Still, I’m much more closely aligned with the market. Seattle might offer substantial value at current odds if you’re willing to buy into the FanGraphs projection. I’m not far from showing actionable value on the Mariners, though I would want something closer to +145 - relative to current odds at +140 - to justify a bet on their series price. You can bet the Phillies series price down to -105. Yet, I still show value in betting against another Central division champion, which has been an extremely profitable strategy in recent playoff memory. Like the Tampa-Cleveland series, my projection here is even less optimistic on the Phillies’ chances than the FanGraphs projection. I set the Phillies as fairly substantial favorites in the first two games against the Cardinals, who don’t have the starting pitching quality to match Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola. My projection is even less aggressive than the FanGraphs number, and you can bet the Rays’ series price down to even money. Moreover, their bullpen improved dramatically in the second half, and I model these two bullpens as relative equals, despite what the season-long metrics might indicate. I favor Tampa Bay in all three games against Cleveland, given the Rays‘ ability to toss a pair of left-handed starters against an offense with far superior splits against righties. ![]() The remaining teams ordered by pitching effectiveness (per expected FIP or xFIP) this season isn’t all that surprising if you follow the sport closely, but it still paints an interesting picture as to how these teams stack up on the mound: The adage that “pitching wins championships” may not necessarily be accurate, but one thing is clear: pitchers drive betting odds.Īnd the difference between starting pitching and bullpen quality can cause massive fluctuations between betting odds for the first five innings compared to the whole game. Still, it’s worth noting that this data captures the full-season picture and may not represent the construct of their current rosters after accounting for injuries, trades and prospect promotions. There is still some value left in the MLB playoff betting market.īefore diving into my projections, I like to look at how the remaining teams stack up in all three phases. If you aren’t already on the baseball futures train and are just tuning in now - that’s OK too. While we had preseason World Series positions on the Blue Jays (+1200) and Phillies (+4000), my midseason additions on the Braves (+600 pennant and +1000 World Series) and Padres (+1500 pennant) in the National League, and the Mariners (+3000 pennant, +7500 World Series) and Jays (+2500 World Series) in the American League each show substantial value at the start of the postseason.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |